Jake Ellenberger entered the UFC with little hype, however since suffering a close split decision loss to Carlos Condit in his UFC debut, he’s been on an absolute tear going 5-0. Most recently, he took out Jake Shields in the first round of by far the biggest fight of his career, and with a win here one has to think Ellenberger is on the short list for top contenders in the welterweight division.
Latest Jake Ellenberger vs Diego Sanchez Odds;
Ellenberger – (-300) @ Bovada.Lv
Sanchez – (+240) @ Bovada.Lv
Diego Sanchez has had a fairly storied career. After seeing his initial welterweight run derailed, he moved down to lightweight, where he would get his first chance at a UFC title against BJ Penn. Sanchez fell short against the then champion, and decided he would move back up to welterweight. His return would not go as planned, as he would be dominated by John Hathaway. Since then however, he earned a clear decision over a solid Paulo Thiago, and most recently won a hotly contested decision over Martin Kampmann.
In terms of how this fight is go, it’s a little tough to predict. Conceivably, I can see either fighters looking for takedowns, or I can conceivably see either fighter trying to keep things on the feet. However, in terms of how the fighters actually match up, one has to give Ellenberger almost every conceivable advantage.
Sanchez has never been a strong striker, whereas Ellenberger has showed incredible power. In terms of wrestling, Sanchez was nearly defeated by Clay Guida, whereas Ellenberger has shown strong takedowns. Sanchez likely holds a jiujitsu advantage on paper, however it’s unlikely to come into play. Really, the only advantage I can give to Sanchez is his cardio and maybe his heart.
Now, before betting the house on Ellenberger, let’s try to make the case for Sanchez. Beating Paulo Thiago is a good win, and while I definitely disagree with the decision against Kampmann, he showed strong durability. Ellenberger on the other hand barely beat Carlos Eduardo Rocha, the Shields win was arguably an early stoppage, and John Howard and Sean Pierson are not high level contenders. Really, the best performances on Ellenberger’s resume are against Carlos Condit and Mike Pyle.
The Jake Ellenberger vs Diego Sanchez prediction is that Ellenberger destroys Sanchez with power punches, leading to a stoppage midway through the fight. At the -300 play, it’s still pricey, but you have to play it small. Really, the question you need to ask yourself is, ‘Just how good is Carlos Eduardo Rocha’, because that guy really gave Ellenberger fits, and maybe Ellenberger’s overrated. Personally though, I think Sanchez is severely overmatched, and he can’t outstrike Ellenberger, he can’t outwrestle Ellenberger, and he doesn’t possess one punch knockout power. Ellenberger isn’t a lock, but he should pull through.
Full Disclose: I thought Kampmann, Thiago, and Hathaway would destroy Sanchez, and bet heavily on all three.
Conclusion: Ellenberger’s on the rise, and stylistically, I don’t see how he loses this. At the current -300 odds, you have to play it small. Wager 3 units on Ellenberger to win 1 unit.
Bet On Jake Ellenberger vs Diego Sanchez Odds At Bovada.Lv
